There is a flurry of activity to rally together the anti-BJP forces nationally with an eye on the 2024 parliamentary elections. This is not unexpected because the general consensus has been — with the shrinking footprint of the Congress it is only an united opposition that can take on the BJP. Similar initiatives were seen before 2019 as well. But, the efforts fizzled out mainly because of Congress. Buoyed by its success in the preceding state elections in Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, it began to fancy its chances of making a comeback and, hence, did not participate wholeheartedly in an anti-BJP mobilization. However, what is surprising this time around, is that the rumblings have started almost three years before the polls are due.
There could be several factors contributing to this development. First, is the realisation that a rag-tag coalition cannot take on the formidable electoral machinery of the BJP. Forging a viable alliance between disparate stakeholders with competing ambitions (if not conflicting ideology) takes time and cannot be cobbled together just in the run up to the elections. Second, is the all-important matter of timing. Without doubt BJP’s setback in the West Bengal elections has emboldened the opposition — in particular, the Trinamool Congress which has smelled an opportunity for playing on the national stage. There is a general sense that the Modi Government has lost significant political capital in the Covid Second wave and might continue to lose ground in its economic aftermath and, in the unfortunate event of, a third wave. The farmers’ agitation, although it has lost steam, has refused to die down. It can flare up again after the Kharif season to put the government in a spot. Finally, there appears to be a concerted ‘build-up’ of anti-India sentiments in the international community — particularly in the West after the Biden administration took over — which perceives the Modi Government as a “Right Wing Hindu” government that can endanger Human Right, Religious freedom and, possibly, democracy in the long run. All this together look like a potent combination of factors that can put the Modi Government on the back foot for the rest of its term and, thus, boost the prospects of an opposition resurgence.
If anyone thought BJP will be rattled by the buzz — it has shown no such signs. The government braved through the worst phase of Covid Second Wave. Between June last week and now it has completed nearly 15 crore of vaccines to take the total vaccination count to over 50 crores, which is an impressive achievement. Politically, Narendra Modi carried out a major reshuffle in the Cabinet, inducting many new and young faces — which has been well received and seems to have infused new energy in the government — especially in some key ministries like health which required urgent attention. Decisive actions in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Karnataka have quelled rumblings in key states that are due to go polls in the coming year. A major step was the meeting with leaders of mainstream political parties of Jammu and Kashmir, setting the terms and next steps for restoration of statehood. The government remained unfazed by protests and disruptions during the Monsoon Session of Parliament to push through several crucial legislations. The uproar over the Pegasus Leaks controversy doesn’t seem to have rattled the administration.
Substantial steps have been taken on the foreign policy front — with respect to Afghanistan and China, as evident from the visit of the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, followed by disengagement of Indian and Chinese troops at the Ladakh border. In July, the economy showed signs of early recovery from the second wave. Last but not the least, the win of several medals, including Neeraj Chopra’s Gold on the last day of the Olympics, has uplifted the national mood. All in all — the Modi government gives the impression of being in control.
There are several reasons for this. While the opposition has certainly shown more enthusiasm in recent weeks, it has been more noise than substance. The Monsoon session was a missed opportunity. Instead of engaging the government in meaningful debates, it was busy creating commotion inside the house and token protests outside. Neither served any useful purpose. The first, in fact, was turned by the government to its advantage showing the opposition to be non-serious and negative. And, protests, such a “cycle” march to the parliament may have been a good “photo-op” had little mass impact.
A mixed group of politicians and opinion makers had gathered at the Delhi residence of Sharad Pawar to discuss the formation of an alternative national forum. This was followed by Mamata Banerjee’s high profile visit to the capital meeting several opposition leaders under the glare of TV cameras. But, the Congress was clearly uncomfortable at the developments and did not want anyone else to gain a first mover advantage. So, it hurriedly convened another tea meeting of opposition leaders to assert its position in any anti-BJP formation. Many of its lower rung leaders started talking to the media about how no opposition efforts can succeed without Congress being its principal player.
In all this some parties such as the BSP remained conspicuous by their absence. While some others who participated — like the Samajwadi Party — seemed to be on a wait and watch mode. Meanwhile, Lalu Prasad Yadav now out on bail made courtesy calls on other leaders of his ilk — viz Sharad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav indicating the importance of the Yadav axis in the Hindi heartland. Thus, in short, the contradictions have begun to surface even before the party has begun. At the moment — the future of opposition unity is hinging on Prashant Kishor. But, an election consultant cannot be a substitute for a charismatic and visionary leader. And, Prashant Kishor is no Jaiprakash Narayan or Lohia.
So, does this give the BJP cause to be complacent? The new BJP under Modi-Shah is not one to take any challenge lightly. They know Uttar Pradesh is the biggest test, the semi-finals as people are calling it, before 2024. They will use this period of confusion among the opposition to ensure victory in Uttar Pradesh by leaving nothing to chance. The bugle for this was already sounded in the Prime Minister’s Varanasi visit. This will gather further momentum with the inauguration of several mega developmental projects, such as the Purvanchal Expressway, in the coming months. Progress on Ram Mandir and related projects — such as the Kosi Parikrama Marg — are being given high visibility to keep it top of mind. The trauma of Covid Second Wave is beginning to heal. Aid in terms of PMGKY has started reaching the people. Therefore, barring any unforeseen tragedy, much of the lost ground is expected to be recovered before 2022. And, last but not the least, chances of any multi-party alliance in UP for the assembly elections is unlikely — as neither BSP or SP would like to give up seats to Congress, which most people consider to be a non-starter despite the hype around Priyanka Vadra Gandhi.
However, all said it is early days yet. The Opposition (especially Trinamool) is saying “Game on” . But, they are preparing for the game as per the old rules. The talent of Narendra Modi is to change the rules of the game just before the match. So, underestimating them will be a mistake. Both Mamata Banerjee and Rahul Gandhi would have to be prepared for many twists and turns before the finals in 2024.
This article was first published in Dainik Jagran on August 11th, 2021
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